Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got something to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
